Philip E. Tetlock

À propos de l'auteur

Philip E. Tetlock is a renowned American psychologist and political science professor, best known for his groundbreaking work in forecasting and judgment under uncertainty. He gained significant recognition for his research on how well experts can predict future events, culminating in the influential book 'Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.' Through rigorous studies and empirical analysis, Tetlock challenged the notion that experts could reliably foresee complex political and economic developments, revealing instead that many fall prey to cognitive biases and overconfidence.

Tetlock's work not only sheds light on the limitations of expert predictions but also offers valuable insights into improving forecasting accuracy. His research emphasizes the importance of open-mindedness, active learning, and the willingness to revise one's beliefs in light of new evidence. As a result, he has influenced a wide range of fields, including political science, economics, and decision-making, promoting a more nuanced understanding of prediction in an uncertain world.