Measuring Contagion with a Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient Model

Measuring Contagion with a Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient Model

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Sep 1, 2003 · الإنجليزية · كيندل (68 صفحات)
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تنسيق كيندل
صفحات 68
لغة الإنجليزية
منشور Sep 1, 2003
الناشر Not Avail
رقم ISBN-10 6613802557
رقم ISBN-13 9786613802552

الوصف

We propose using a Bayesian time-varying coefficient model estimated with Markov chain-Monte Carlo methods to measure contagion empirically. The proposed measure works in the joint presence of heteroskedasticity and omitted variables and does not require knowledge of the timing of the crisis. It distinguishes contagion not only from interdependence but also from structural breaks and can be used to investigate positive as well as negative contagion. The proposed measure appears to work well using both simulated and actual data.
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