Book Details
Format
Kindle
Pages
68
Language
English
Published
Sep 1, 2003
Publisher
Not Avail
ISBN-10
6613802557
ISBN-13
9786613802552
Description
We propose using a Bayesian time-varying coefficient model estimated with Markov chain-Monte Carlo methods to measure contagion empirically. The proposed measure works in the joint presence of heteroskedasticity and omitted variables and does not require knowledge of the timing of the crisis. It distinguishes contagion not only from interdependence but also from structural breaks and can be used to investigate positive as well as negative contagion. The proposed measure appears to work well using both simulated and actual data.