A Structured Elicitation Approach to Identify Technology-Based Challenges: With Application to Inform Force Planning for Technological Surprise

In a rapidly evolving technological landscape, understanding potential challenges is crucial for strategic planning. This work explores a systematic elicitation method designed to uncover the most pressing technology-related hurdles that could impact the U.S. Joint Force. Through collaborative insights from experts, the authors aim to foresee technological surprises that could shape future military operations.

The structured approach employed in this study provides a framework for identifying and analyzing complex challenges, which can significantly influence force planning. By focusing on the interplay of emerging technologies and potential adversarial responses, the authors offer valuable perspectives that military leaders can use to enhance preparedness and resilience in their operations.